Contingency And Source Material For Analysis

Leaving Room for Contingency

In discussing conspiracy, it is also necessary, as Donald Jensen has pointed
out, to leave room for contingency.
Conspiracies often do not produce the
effects desired by the conspirators. One key contingent effect triggered by
the conspiracies discussed in this article occurred in early to mid August
1999, the chronological terminus of this paper: ethnic Avars living in
mountain Dagestan reacted highly unfavorably to the incursion spearheaded

12 From a written comment made by Reddaway on this manuscript in December 2004.
From comments made by Reddaway serving as one of the two discussants of this paper
at a seminar chaired by Professor Bruce Parrott and held at SAIS on 8 October 2003.
From Reddaway’s written comment of December 2004 on this paper.
From comments made by Donald Jensen while serving as a discussant of this paper at
a SAIS seminar on 8 October 2004.
by Dagestani “wahhabis” under the titular leadership of field commanders
Shamil’ Basaev and Khattab. The Avars sided decisively with the Russian
government against the wahhabis. This result had apparently not been
foreseen by the leaders of the incursion.

The Problem of Sources

I have already noted Peter Reddaway’s assertion that the nature of the
phenomena being studied in this paper requires a partial resurrection of
Kremlinological analysis. In seeking to determine what actually took place
and why it occurred, I have been required to cast as broad a net as possible.
To take one example, in analyzing the background to the early August 1999
incursion into Dagestan, I cite, inter alia, the findings of a Russian
investigative weekly; the work of a Russian journalist reporting for RFE-RL;
the words of the former commander of the MVD troops in Russia; the
eyewitness recollections of a deputy minister of internal affairs of Dagestan;
the findings of veterans of the Russian special forces; the views of a retired
Russian military colonel; and the eyewitness reporting of a journalist writing
for Frankfurter Rundschau. Casting a broad net and then carefully sifting
through the information collected—always bearing in mind that Russia is in
no sense a law-based state—can lead a researcher in the direction of
unearthing the truth.
With this background in mind, let us then begin focusing closely on the
period from May through August of 1999 when the “Storm in Moscow”
scenario was first bruited and then, in part, put into effect.